The Changing Landscape of Academics As Affected by New Communications Technology

by R. Neil R. Kestner
Louisiana State University

Thirty years from now the big university campuses will be relics. Universities won't survive. It's as large a change as when we first got the printed book. The college won't survive as a residential institution. Today's buildings are hopelessly unsuited and totally unneeded.

-Peter Drucker in "Seeing Things As They Really Are"
by Robert Lenzner and Stephen S. Johnson, Forbes, March 10, 1997

The academic world has been changed dramatically by the introduction of new communications technology; it continues to be transformed every day. However, academics institutions often are slow to change; or as a Wisconsin Board of Regents chairman titled his book, it's like "Moving a Battleship with Your Bare Hands." [1] Others have likened changing academics as being as complex as moving a cemetery. But there are many differences between the current revolution and those of the past. Technology (and the transition from paper, which has always been the symbol of academics) has brought into play other factors, other players. The landscape is not that of the past four or five decades.

In this essay, we will explore these changes and their effects on academic institutions, trying to predict the future for institutions, faculty and students as well as traditions of operation. The academic world is now experiencing major influences that really are a transition from the early paper-only days to the electronic interactions and transactions of today. Despite objections from thc academic community, we are really seeing the same issues in academics that businesses have been addressing for several years; in short, academics has become more business-like whether we like it or not.

Recent Changes

It was not too long ago that the telephone and normal postal mail were the standard method for communication in academic circles as well as business. In rush circumstances, and when involving foreign collaborations, one often used teletypes with their text-only interchange. But that medium was very limiting and therefore it was not surprising that international cooperative efforts in research were difficult to sustain. In the early eighties the fax machine was just beginning to become a departmental resource. It was not ignored by the research community, and we can all remember the flurry of papers dealing with high Tc superconductors and then the even larger volume of papers which choked departmental fax machines on the subject of Cold Fusion. In this later instance, people were trading details of their experiments within days of their execution, making publication, the usual method of scientific discourse, almost irrelevant. This was not limited to just the US, but included the entire world. It was a new way to do science (we can each comment on whether it was the best way to do science, but it was fast and effective communication). Due to the unusual nature of this particular development, the original authors released few of the details, and scientists quickly adopted the newer and faster technologies to get into this rapidly developing research.

In the late seventies a new communication tool appeared, the Internet and its various fledgling predecessor subnets, such as BITNET. One of the uses made of this network was to disseminate information on "bucky balls," discovered and studied most extensively at Rice University. The Rice team soon had an extensive listserv environment to share data around the world among the various research groups. Another major use was to make the High Energy preprint collection readily available to anyone, a subject addressed in much greater detail in other chapters. Previously those high energy preprints were sent by mail to various major research libraries. Along with email, these same networks allowed one to operate computers at remote sites. This author was able to perform calculations in Baton Rouge, using a terminal in Tel Aviv, in the early eighties.

Those early networks had one serious fault: it was hard to transmit graphics except as a compressed file to be executed later. One could send a file to be run remotely, but that was awkward. In certain areas of research, graphic content is especially important. In the mid to late eighties everything changed dramatically when the European Laboratory for Particle Physics (CERN) developed the HTML language and the University of Illinois released a free web browser. These arrangements allowed anyone to view the original document, including the graphic content, from a remote site (or if one chose, even make one's own personal copy over the very same network; all almost instantaneously). We all know what has happened since. But think of what this now means for the academic and scientific community. Within minutes elaborate articles including graphics, and now even audio, video, animations, can be posted to a web site for viewing around the world. Scientists in Russia can check the agreement of curve fittings made in Los Alamos. Furthermore all this is done in color and items can be highlighted, simulations dissected for all to see. But it is not only being used by scientists, engineers and mathematicians; it is also being widely used in the humanities. The World Wide Web provides instant personal publications on any topic. It can allow art experts, historians, and archeologists to discuss recent finds and see graphics or high detail photos of recent finds. Rare documents can be displayed, providing access for many more scholars, while reducing the need to transport the observer or the object, reducing risk of damage or loss of rare objects. One side benefit of the transition from paper is the electronic archiving of many rare documents.

These instant communications are equally important in the other role of most academicians, namely in teaching. We now have available via the Internet, satellites, or other "wires", the ability to respond instantly, limited only by the speed of light and electronic circuitry, to a question of a student anywhere in the world. As teachers we can have as much interactivity as the students desire, independent of whether the student is in the same room or in another country. This new area is now called distance education[2] to distinguish it from the paper-only world that previously functioned in this arena, now usually referred to as correspondence study. With electronic communications via the Internet, we have the tools in our fast computers to illustrate, simulate or demonstrate complex phenomena quickly and present them to remote sites. At the moment, these tools of "distance" education are arbitrarily subdivided into compressed or full band video (ITV), Internet or web delivery, audiographics, videoconferencing, etc., and the "pipes" might be phone lines, microwaves, internet, or satellites. When we finally have a big enough pipe (i.e., enough bandwidth) and achieve "convergence", the same "wire" will be able to handle whatever media we wish, beaming content wherever we wish. With Low Earth Orbiting (LEO) satellites we can even ignore the wires, a great advantage for very remote and sparsely populated territories.

While some of these tools originated because of their usefulness for instruction or sometimes from business applications, they now have the ability to transform all of our communications, be they for business, research, teaching, or social, changing us in ways profoundly different from what we have seen thus far. We will expect to find these tools incorporated into how we conduct our scientific business in ways that transcend just the communication of the final "printed" work. Business, always concerned with the "bottom line", is already providing academics with some new models and examples of what can be accomplished. The real issue is how academics will take advantage of these new capabilities.

The Current Higher Education Climate

Organizational Issues

Universities today are under tremendous pressure to change. Not only are there forces urging more use of technology and modernization, but also the public is increasingly concerned with the cost of higher education, costs which are outpacing other items in the economy. Their physical plants have become large but are used rather inefficiently. Universities are reacting to these public concerns in ways very similar to those taken by businesses during the last decade; increased use of technology, downsizing, diversification. Many actions are intimately associated with modern digital technology and the decreased use of paper. Eli Noam [3] has argued in "Electronics and the Dim Future of the University" that technology will doom higher education as we know it. A more reasoned article by Andrew Odlyzko[4] on "Electronics and the Future of Education" sees major changes but no destruction, a more likely scenario. In any case along with the new communications technology have come some opportunities as well as some complications we will now explore. In addition, just as in the business community when costs in one company become excessive, this is an opportunity for competition even in the realm of academic enterprises, a fact well understood by economists such as Michael Porter. [4b]

The university population is also growing and changing. It is estimated that the number of 19 year olds will increase by 4%. in the next five years, or 3 million more than the 76 million in 1995.[5] The average age of higher education students has been increasing; roughly 45% of all college students were over 25 in the fall of 1995.[6] Both issues are highly relevant to the future of education. Growth under the current model of education would normally mean more buildings, but buildings are expensive and come with a lot of overhead. The public is resisting more bricks and mortar. Growth under our present policies and educational practices also means employing more people, more faculty, even higher costs and often, unfortunately, decreased efficiency and productivity. Higher education has been getting more and more expensive and less efficient in an economic sense; alternatively, productivity has been declining. Previously the public had been expressing those same concerns about K-12 education, but now all of education seems under "economic attack".

Academic productivity is proving hard to quantify as well as very controversial. Massy and Zemasky[7] have attempted to jump into these turbulent waters via a series of papers and sessions at the National Learning Infrastructure Initiative (NLII) meetings.[8] But we must maintain quality while controlling costs. For this reason most people who have studied the problem feel that if costs are held under control but the number of students served increases (while the educational quality of the graduates is maintained or improved), the public will likely be satisfied. However, even this requires major changes in higher education organizations and major restructuring. Technology is being looked upon as one way to accomplish this goal.

There are some excellent examples where technology has improved productivity. The Studio Physics project[9] at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI), the brainchild of Jack Wilson,[10] was able to reduce costs by having computer laboratories, manned by faculty and students, replace lecture and recitation sections. The students were being better trained for less money. However, those savings are not applicable to all universities since many have already cut costs much further than at RPI (although they have probably also reduced the quality even further). Virginia Polytechnic Institute is experimenting with large computer laboratories (the so-called "Mathematics Emporium") to teach introductory mathematics courses. Students work mostly with computers, but faculty and graduate students are available to answer questions or even present mini-lectures if students desire them. At many large universities we already teach up to 400 students with a single faculty member and maybe one part time graduate student for grading. It is difficult to see how those costs per student could be reduced much further unless a computer laboratory was introduced with almost no faculty involvement. Once the dollars per student ratio is reduced below some threshold by cost-cutting measures, it is virtually impossible to reduce costs any further using technology. Also, in various types of computer-mediated conferencing classes, it has been found that one must have about one tutor (or faculty member) per 30 students if there is to be any extensive interaction among the students.[11] As classes get larger, the faculty member or instructor takes on a less active role and lets the smaller groups handle their own problems, much like in collaborative learning. The belief that using technology will be able to increase class sizes almost without limit is not true. Even in electronically oriented organizations, like the Open University of the UK with thousands of students in each course, a tutor is assigned to each group of about 25 [2]; the University of Phoenix (UOP) and other distance learning programs typically do the same. UOP is able to reduce costs by utilizing part-time help, part-timers who hold or have had business jobs. [12] Notable business consultants like Peter Denning [13] and Peter Drucker[14] have urged universities to adopt business models or face extinction. That may be too extreme, but something must be done to reign in costs. If we compare universities with community colleges, it is clear that the costs per student could be reduced, but it is also clear that there is a huge value-added component of a university education. Ask any student if he or she would prefer to have a degree from an Ivy League school or a community college and it is clear that there is a major perceived (and real) difference.

A number of major projects are currently underway to address the cost and efficiency issues of regular and technology-assisted courses. Most notable are the Flashlight project,[15] under the direction of Steve Ehrmann, and a larger NSF study (with other organizations such as SHEEO, State Higher Education Executive Officers)[16] under the direction of Frank Jewett. Both studies are needed since we do not understand these economics or cost/benefits very well.

The response of universities to the growth has been to increase class size, to use more graduate students in classes and to hire increasing numbers of part time employees (similar to responses to industry pleas for increased productivity). This has led to concern about decreasing quality of education. More buildings is not an option if we are also to reduce the overhead costs of instruction. In regard to buildings, the new Florida Gulf Coast University [17] was deliberately given only 75% of its building budget in order to force it to use alternative delivery systems. Other universities have been looking to Distance Education as another money-maker to cover costs. There is some hope that increased use of technology might be a way to improve efficiency and reduce costs or, at least, decrease the rate of growth. The public would probably be satisfied if the costs were contained and the quality of the graduates improved.

While part-timers and graduate assistants are a very viable portion of the higher education faculty, there is increasing concern that they are becoming too large a fraction. Ten major higher education organizations recently joined in expressing their concerns about these new trends. [18]. The concern is that such cost cutting measures are undermining the nature of the university, as well as possibly leading to inferior instruction. With increased use of technology, faculty will need more support; but maybe that should be in the area of instructional specialists and not content providers.

Another feature of the modern era is competition, a fact of life for business but not for most universities until now. We now have large, national universities, and even international universities, who are freed of artificial government boundaries, by modern electronic communication. There are, for example, the University of Phoenix (40,000 students), the Open University of UK (150,000 students), many cooperatives like Mind Extension University or National Technical University, [12] and Virtual Universities, such as Western Governors University and those of California, Illinois, Maine, Texas, and the Southern Regional Education Board (SREB). There are also alliances such as Florida State University and The Open University of the UK. In addition, basic courses as well as many specialized Just in Time (JlT) courses[19] are being offered by companies like Arthur Andersen ($300M education budget, 10,400 limousine trips per year to their headquarters outside Chicago, 100 classrooms at their central location), Motorola ($120M education expenditure in $13B budget), IBM (spun off Skill Dynamics and Eduquest), Microsoft at peak ($1B/yr on education), and DuPont ($330-500M spent per year). Increasingly, some for-profit firms like Kaplan and Sylvan (Caliber Learning Network) are beginning to compete or collaborate with universities in offering courses. As the book "The Monster Under the Bed: How Business Is Mastering the Opportunity of Knowledge for Profit" by Stan Davis and Jim Botkin[21] so aptly describes, companies are seeing opportunities in education at all levels. (Also see "Slicing the Learning Pie" by Stan Davis. [20]) The University of Phoenix is now traded on the NASDAQ as the Apollo Group (APOL) and during the last year went from 23 to 49, obviously a hit with investors. Other major players are Strayer Education, DeVry Institute of Technology, ITT Educational Services and EduTrek International (with it American Intercontinental University--which on its first day of trading went from $14 to $24 a share). [21] This is now a $3.5-billion growth industry, both in dollars and in numbers of students. Investment analysts are even beginning to recommend purchase of these stocks.

There is also increasing concern from employers that graduates are poorly equipped for the modern business world, i.e., the quality is decreasing. Such concerns have caused businesses to teach their own courses, develop their own educational departments. One of these areas of training is in modern technology, and universities are now responding in that area, often supported with technology fees paid by the students.

Student Issues

The nature of the students in higher education is changing significantly. Not only are there more 19-21 year olds, but students are more computer savvy and visually oriented (the "MTV generation"), becoming increasingly older on average, and they often need more specialized work-related training immediately. In addition, these new types of students often have other pressing needs on their time such as jobs and families, and they are increasingly spread out geographically.

Some specifics:

• 80% of students in grades 1-12 use computers, 40% use them at home
• 23% of all households are online (expected to reach 67% in 2000--82% of grades 1-6, 76% of grades 7-12)[22]
• At many schools over half of the students are over 24 (43% nationally)
• Many students delay college or come back for special courses later
• Many do not live within easy commute of schools
• Many are unable to meet the old fashioned schedule of classes because of work or family (even 39% of freshmen this year work at least 16 hours a week)[6]

The changing demographics of the students are also forcing the university to change and to face major competitions of a type it has never encountered. Older students have other priorities. A recent issue of the New Yorker[12] discussing the University of Phoenix quotes one of these students as saying, "I want terrific services, I want convenience, I want quality control. Give me classes twenty four hours a day and give me in-class parking, if possible." No mention is made of football teams or social events or the "freshman experience". Many of these students are married, often with children, and they cannot spend extra time out of the home. Many organizations listed earlier are now offering courses to these students in the home or at convenient times and places. These providers are often not local and use various modes of distance education to provide opportunities for the students. Frances Cairncross has an interesting book called "The Death of Distance: How the Communications Revolution Will Change Our Lives." [23] The death of distance is very relevant to modern educational delivery systems since these new delivery systems do not depend on where the students or instructors are located. These new methods for educational delivery use those same electronic pipes that we use to carry other communications. Despite Noam's predictions,[3] Odlyzko [4] and others argue that the traditional university will probably not grow much larger, with the increased numbers of students having their educational needs being catered to by national distance education groups, some of which could be for profit. Our new students are different, and instructional methods must change to address their concerns as well as issues of accountability.

Research is already changing

Modern electronic communications have already altered how we do research. We already discussed the new ease of communication with coworkers, not limited by any geographical boundaries. Communication with the Hubbell telescope is as easy as with the spectroscope in the same room; communication with someone in Germany is as easy as locating your colleagues on the same campus. These new communications are also altering how we distribute the results of our research.

It is now possible to self-publish, on the World Wide Web, anything you want. The more important issue is becoming, how do you get anyone to read it (i.e., marketing). Academicians have long subscribed to an elaborate culture which made the dissemination of the good results easy and even guaranteed an audience. It was a rather formal arrangement, one so important that most scientists readily signed away their rights to own presentations of their own labors, something which astonishes a journalist or writer who depends on ownership for their livelihood. Scientists were willing to do this because the publishers provided refereeing and all the typographical work required to get a paper in press. Now anyone can do and often does all of the preparation before sending the article to a journal; all the journal needs to do is referee it and distribute it. Self-publishing on the net accomplishes everything but refereeing. Previously publishers did the marketing but took the copyright in return, but as Justice Sandra Day O'Connor wrote, "It should not be forgotten that the framers intended copyright itself to be the engine of free expression." [24] Using self-publishing we can reclaim this freedom.

The other way scientific results have been made public, in addition to private communications and journal publications, is through presentations at conferences. Scientists travel long distances and spend much time and money to meet their colleagues and discuss research ideas, many of which are not yet totally developed or which often contain some unusual feature that makes the scientist concerned about his/her explanation. Such discussions and critical debate are essential for progress in any field, but is it essential for the individuals to be in the same room? The answer probably is, "sometimes." For a long time science has enjoyed a relatively generous travel budget because it was felt that this was essential for progress. Agencies also liked to see their grantees appear before groups, presenting the latest data and justifying the granting agency's role. Most of that is necessary and provides a filtering mechanism to rank a work's quality. Poor work, when exposed before a large public forum, appears inferior.

Business people, likewise, have their own ideas and issues they need to communicate across large corporations. They are also very concerned with justifying any expenditure that does not translate into profit. More and more businesses have been finding that much of their travel is not justified, but communications that had taken place at their meetings were still essential. That is one of the reasons we see increased use of videoconferencing in large corporations. Such videoconferences may involve simple conferencing where one desires a little more than just a phone call and wants to see the people involved. At the high end of computer conferencing we have groups working together on a common document, with everyone having before them the same computer screen containing changes made at one site, just seconds before. These whiteboards and videoconferencing devices are starting to have an impact in scientific communications.

All of these new communication tools have made it much easier to have international collaborations on rescarch projects. There can be real time collaboration and not just the sharing of results. However, the web also allows for massive sharing of data. This is most dramatic in various DNA sequence projects (such as the Human Genome Project) where many research groups work on one portion of the project but all results are stored in one massive database, accessible to everyone. The recent Mars Pathfinder project is another example. Within minutes of data collection, people around the world had access to photos and analytical results of Mars rocks, as well as up to the minute reports on wind and temperature.

But the question remains, "Can a typical scientific conference be carried out via electronic communication?" Simon Schama [25] discussed this from the viewpoint of historians: "And with the possibility of lectures and seminars being opened electronically to all (who have paid their professional dues), annual conventions of historians can revert to their essential, honest-to-goodness function as guild gatherings, assembled for feasting, gossip and hiring inspections." Maybe a few conference activities can still be justified. For the record, however, career placement offices are also using videoconferencing to help employers make their initial employee decisions. Even hiring interviews can be done electronically. In another essay we will hear more about various electronic conferences in which the papers and all discussions are carried on at a distance. The question remains if those conferences and private electronic discussions can totally replace the large meetings of the past. Very likely some large meetings will occur but they will be fewer in number and personal interactions will be electronic or, if in person, will involve small, very focused groups.

There is also another type of publication which we need to explore, namely monographs. While all areas of research use them for some publications at present, most scientists could probably migrate all conference reports and specialized publications to the web with very little effect. These monographs are very expensive and have very limited sales. They do play a major role in certain fields, probably more in the non-science or humanities areas. In many fields those publications are the major components necessary for tenure. Of all the types of books used in academics, the economics of these are most unfavorable and they are most likely to eliminated, regardless of electronic alternatives, in these days of drastic cutbacks in library budgets. There was a recent meeting of the American Council of Learned Societies, the American Association of American University Presses and the Association of Research Libraries to address the "death of the monograph." [26] Many at that meeting saw the Internet as one viable option.

It seems clear that such works must move to electronic form, either web or CD-ROM. (This is consistent with what was done in the early days, when communication moved to the best media available, namely the printed page.) However, there must be some way for their quality to be reviewed. It is possible that there will have to be electronic bulletin boards reviewing these publications. The CD-ROM could be self-published for a small fraction of the previous cost and could even be placed in some repository, along with reviews from experts. In tenure decisions, it might be necessary for the author to explain how he has disseminated his work, and the promotions committee might have to send out CD-ROMs for review. Reasonable solutions will require changes in what is currently done.

Instruction/Teaching is Trying to Change Also

Several trends occurring in higher education affect the roles and activities of the faculty. They also affect the future of paper publications. These are the increased recognition given to teaching, the increased use of technology in teaching, a shift to learner-centered teaching, and the increased importance of distance education and competition among institutions.

Increased emphasis on teaching

Partly as a result of public concern and partly because research funding is declining, universities have begun to pay increasing attention to the importance of good teaching as part of a faculty member's responsibilities. There is evidence that this is more than just talk, since promotion and tenure guidelines are being modified. One result is the involvement of more enthusiastic young faculty, full of new ideas and attuned to modern communications, spending more time trying to improve instruction. They are getting interested at exactly the time when other technological changes, such as those mentioned earlier involving research support, are becoming available for other uses as well.

Increased use of technology

It is almost a given that once technology becomes available it will be used. It will be used in research and it will be used in teaching. Computers by themselves are nice tools capable of controlling experiments, and reporting and analyzing experiments; but with a network, we are not limited to local resources and can connect with anyone or anything in the world. That can include a person down the hall or a big server which can offer up customized learning materials for each student and hold the most up to date reference materials. With CD-ROM and huge hard drives becoming common, the issue of storage is no longer a limiting factor as it was a few years ago. Making a personal CD-ROM is no longer costly (less than $1 each in large volumes); they are routinely included as giveaways in computer magazines. Thus, a visually intensive presentation can be prepared and sold to students or included as a textbook supplement. In chemistry, the major textbook publishers now include a CD-ROM with the textbook, and one of the items it contains is the entire textbook itself. In addition, there are animations, demonstrations and all sorts of supplementary materials. So why does one need a paper textbook? Right now the best answer is that not all students have access to the necessary computer system. It is simply an issue of availability of that technology and maybe the comfort level of individuals reading from a computer screen versus a printed book.

Faculty members who want to spend the time could make their own CD-ROM's and never use a textbook or paper handouts. As discussed earlier, with these new technologies RPI has switched from normal lecture/recitation classes to their Studio Physics courses,[9] which are totally computer based. Those new courses have produced better learning at a lower cost. Very few of the course materials are on paper. They have expanded this type of instruction to other courses as well.

Several major organizations are leading the way on the application of technology to instruction. Those involved with policy issues as well as best practices include the NLII (National Learning Infrastructure Initiative) of Educom and the AAHE ( American Association of Higher Education) through its offshoot, the Technology Projects group and their Teaching Learning Technology Roundtables. Many other organizations are pursuing similar goals but with more emphasis on specific subjects.

The paradigm shift to learner centered instruction

In the education literature today no single item is mentioned more than the paradigm shift to a learner centered environment. It is often summarized as a shift from the cliche "sage on the stage, to guide on the side"; the instructor is more mentor than lecturer. While in fact this is not new, it is very hard to implement a learner (user) driven curricula without extensive use of technology, networks and modern programming languages to let the user control the flow of information. Modern technology, with its massive storage and nonlinear programming, is required to make the instruction meaningful and interesting. The old fashioned linear programming modules of Skinner's teaching machines are not attractive to today's MTV trained students. Likewise, the very nonlinear nature of the Internet has an appeal in this environment. To provide for this new paradigm we need a powerful computer system which is flexible, extensive (requiring networks) and able to deliver multimedia instruction which can fit the learning styles of any student (requiring large storage devices). Production of this new instructional material requires a team approach. Instructional designers are needed to help the content person develop the modules for maximum attractiveness, ease of use, instructional effectiveness, etc. The large educational organizations such as the open universities use this model routinely.[2]

Distance learning and institutional competition

The higher education student body is becoming more diverse, older and more heterogeneous in its interests and needs. They want education on the job, in their home, wherever and whenever they need it. Many want it in a university setting, but those numbers are decreasing. To serve this new breed of student, distance learning has become a major priority for many universities. A survey by the National Center for Educational Statistics completed in the fall of 1995 indicated that 62 percent of public four-year institutions offered distance education courses. There were 25,730 courses offered to 734,640 students. It was estimated that in 1995 as many as 690 different degrees could be received solely by distance education, and about 3,430 students did obtain those degrees.

By distance education,[1] we mean basically that instruction is being delivered at places other than the typical residential classroom; it might be a classroom at another site like a high school, library or another higher education facility, or it could be in the home, in some computer lab, in a library, at the workplace. What is delivered is really not important except that it is via some electronic medium. Instruction can be delivered via satellite, fiber optics or good phone lines (ISDN, in particular); the content can be computer programs, Internet delivered materials, video, audio, whatever. In earlier times this method of educational delivery was called correspondence study and paper was the medium used to transmit information. Today, even most correspondence courses make extensive use of the Internet, email, etc., using paper or videotapes as the lowest common denominator for those without proper electronic connections. The best distance education courses include lots of interactivity.

One of the most exciting developments is computer-mediated conferencing, which has been used in business and in research. The software is often called group-ware since it allows groups to work together. In education these programs are used to allow students to develop group projects and prepare joint papers. Communication with other students or the instructor can be via asynchronous or synchronous communications, depending on whether the group works at different times or the same time. In the lowest common denominator of synchronous communication one uses Cu-See-Me technology, but the most successful applications require single or double ISDN connectivity.

Any university can deliver this type of instruction, and electronic signals do not obey state or geographical boundaries. This means that there is increased competition among several institutions which deliver similar course content to one area. Such competition is a new role for universities and is a direct consequence of the new electronic means of communication. While on the surface it generates competition, it can also be used to collaborate and cooperate via these educational networks. Groups can share materials stored in some central database, but used anywhere, sharing educational materials or publications just as researchers can share files of publications. This competition means that there will be winners and losers. Many experts expect that over half of all distance educational activities will end over the next five to ten years as the weaker programs find it unprofitable to remain active. For this reason there is a lot of activity now to establish a foothold in the growing market.

The competition comes not only from other universities but also comes from commercial enterprises, including large businesses and for-profit universities. Right now each sector is trying to carve out its niche in the market or form strategic alliances to enhance its foothold. Some of the larger commercial providers such as Sylvan, Kaplan, Oracle and even Arthur Andersen are trying to set up arrangements with higher education where they will deliver and market courses while much of the content will come from a school's faculty. The next few years will involve a massive shakedown of business and higher educational efforts in higher education. What is clear is that distance education, via digital format and not paper, is going to be a gigantic profitable market.

Texts for courses are dying while multimedia is growing

Commercial publishers of textbooks are at a crossroads. They see the decline of paper texts for many reasons: books are too big, too inclusive, too expensive, hard to update, and too limiting. The new communication technologies are changing the way we teach, the way students learn. The textbook is but one tool. A number of publishers in the sciences are exploring the use of CD-ROM and Internet sites to supplement the textbook. In reality, if the student has the proper computer equipment, the paper book is irrelevant. However, at the moment those sites or CDs are treated as supplements. They include, for example, real time molecular modeling, simulations, videos of laboratory experiments, and all sort of aids like trial exams with extensive feedback, problem sets with answers, alternative readings, links to relevant web sites, interactive calculations, built-in calculators, etc. The bottom line is that textbook publishers know that times are changing and they are trying to find their role in this new electronic marketplace. Since this topic is so important to the context of this volume there is an entire chapter devoted to this subject.

Reference materials are another type of book which Eli Noam[29] has addressed in his talk at Educom entitled "Will Books become the Dumb Media." These are materials which students must consult throughout a course but which they probably do not purchase. They are usually too expensive for all remote sites to purchase enough copies. Librarians have worried about this a good deal, especially how they can be made available to students at remote sites in a distance education course. To solve this issue universities are establishing electronic reserves with special copyright restrictions whereby students in a selected class (and only them) can access this material remotely. This works well for short papers but obviously is not suited to books or extensive monographs. In most cases this is a great solution; the only stumbling blocks are the copyright issues that the American Library Association (ALA) and others have addressed.

Even admissions and fee payments are electronic

Higher education is big business and therefore it is not surprising that electronic communications are changing the way the administration interacts with students and employees. Just as business is going to electronic commerce so are the universities, from electronic admission forms, to electronic fee payments, to the electronic submission and posting of grades. All policy statements are online. The web is also a public relations tool and a marketing mechanism. The university networks are as important for the business and administrative functions of the university as for its research and instructional needs. This trend will only increase, just as it has within industry.

The Big Issues of Purely Electronic Communication

Academic promotion and tenure decisions vis a vis journal publications

Societies and journal publications play many roles other than just disseminators of information. Publications are used to rank faculty and decide on promotion arid tenure. This is especially true in the academic community, but similar uses are made of this data in other contexts. Research is highly valued in academic circles, and while some may say this is overemphasized, many people in universities continue to use the number of papers written as their index of research activity. However, since there are so many journals available, criteria of quality are needed as well. Increasingly the academic community uses a very informal ranking system based mostly on historical data, but also on who published where, meaning where do faculty from the best colleges and universities publish. That informal ranking is not quantified and yet the major journals are ranked equally across all of the academic communities from the Research I universities right down to community colleges. The Journal of Chemical Physics and the Journal of the American Chemical Society are named as respected journals no matter what academic person in chemistry or physics is interviewed.

What are the features of the journal system which support this informal structure, and how have they developed? First and foremost is the established referee system developed primarily by the society's journals, in which the referees are society members who volunteer to do this necessary work to maintain the quality of scientific publications. One is tempted to say that this process also monitors the reliability and merit of the work. This is true, even when a few inaccurate and incorrect articles get published. Even incorrect papers do satisfy some basic standards of publication. However, the basic fact that the paper has been approved by the 'special community' of referees makes it acceptable even if it contains some minor errors.

But this referee system depends primarily on the good will and service of fellow community members. How are these communities developed? They usually arise from fellow members in a scientific society. The best examples in the areas of physics and chemistry are the American Physical Society and the American Chemical Society. The majority of the members of each discipline belong to these societies. There are even more exclusive and prestigious societies, such as the National Academy of Sciences, but their smaller numbers limit their ability to manage all publications. In short, the major societies provide a group of individuals who are willing to police their own business. The society provides most of the referees and sets standards. For this reason, most society journals have the highest reputations.

All of this has import for the future of publications. We can not remove the referee process. It must continue to be strong. Because of that historical precedence, the promotion and tenure processes in universities rely very heavily on the number and placement of papers in prestigious publications to determine the quality of the research of its faculty and who should be rewarded and promoted. The sciences are not the only group struggling with this problem. Recently at a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Drummond Rennie[30] proposed that the Journal of the American Medical Association have a second way for referees to comment on a paper. Papers would be published on the web or via CD-ROM. They would also be subject to the normal referee process, but other comments could be added electronically from society members.

Some tenure committees and university rules do not even accept non paper materials as part of the tenure process. There are some aspects of teaching materials and research that should not be limited to the page and, clearly, these shortsighted views must be revised.

Scientific societies also play another crucial role in the academic world which is related to their role in refereeing papers prior to publication, and that is the informal review of research based on lecture presentations, question sessions, and informal conversations at society meetings. Those play a role in setting the structure of who is to be respected and whose opinions are valued. When promotion or raises are considered, it is important to consider the status of each person in the scientific community. This supplements opinions based on written works.

Several groups are beginning to address the electronic side of this issue. Rutgers University, The State University of New Jersey, had a committee prepare guidelines on the topic of "Electronic Publishing and Tenure."[31] Peer review and quality control were their major concerns, but they said that electronic publications are certainly a legitimate form of publication along with paper. They urged each discipline to judge its own publications and each tenure committee to defend the quality of the journals cited, which is not very different from our present policies. Concerns were raised about the permanence of scholarly work. A general, problem-based discussion of the role of electronic publications and technology (including software) with regard to tenure is on the web.[32] The Node Networking system also sponsored an electronic forum on tenure and technology. The Node web site is a good source of electronic and paper references on the topic along with interesting discussions, with a distinct Canadian flavor. The prime issue is quality but there is also the concern to give proper credit for creating new materials that are often shared freely on the web.

This is the way things are but they will change. As stated earlier, the academic community is very slow to change its patterns. Right now we will have to maintain our present system. Maintaining academic standards today demands that there be refereeing and some established, even informal, ranking of journals. If that is not maintained, authors will not be able to publish in "unranked" journals for fear that some dean, administrator, or fellow faculty members will not give their publications the proper credit. In short, some respected groups must put their imprimatur on the better publications. But University committees have always required this certification.

Cost of Technology and Student Access

A most serious issue in higher education is how to give students access to computers and technology. The main problem is, of course, money. The most recent annual report by Green[33] does indicate that 32.8% of college courses use email and 13.4% use the Internet in classes. A Yahoo Magazine[34] study says that 3% of higher education schools require a computer and almost all have email accounts. For many schools (59.4%), a $130-140 per year technology fee is levied. This is becoming quite common but also has some students, such as those at UCLA, in opposition to this specialized fee. Unless students have easy access to high-speed networks, all efforts to use technology in the classroom will be limited. An excellent summary of the issue of access is found in the SHEEO (State Higher Education Executives Organization) publication "Computers for All Students: A Strategy for Universal Access to Information Resources"[35] by Mark Resmer, Diana Oblinger, and James R. Mingle.

If it is true that 80% of students have used a computer either at home or at school, this concern may solve itself. It may be one of the issues, like increased bandwidth, that will be solved because it must be solved. The only issue for some of us in the universities is that it might take longer for students to get that access than we would like.

Electronic Theses

An obvious extension of electronic publication is for all students to prepare their theses or dissertations in electronic format for easy for distribution and access. A number of schools such as Virginia Tech[36] and the Universities of Virginia, Texas, West Virginia and Waterloo have passed a policy requiring electronic theses and are placing them online. Outside of the technical issues of preparing an electronic thesis, all of which can be easily solved, the primary problems deal with ownership and copyright. In many disciplines these documents are printed as monographs and used as primary scholarly publications; in the sciences, however, these same materials end up as parts of many scientific papers. The issue that arises is one of prior publication. That topic is especially sensitive in certain journals and with certain societies like the American Chemical Society. Much effort has been devoted to working out compromises and that has been achieved at Virginia Tech (James Fox correspondence[37]). However, issues concerning copyright ownership and prior publication are seriously impeding this one area of electronic communication.

Limitations on Fair Use

Another issue involved more in instruction than in research is the one of fair use when new technologies and especially multimedia are involved. In the recent CONFU agreement,[38] it was assumed that all multimedia materials would be used in a classroom. But modern, distance-education, delivery systems can be used anywhere. This is just an example of how "Fair Use" guideline are being tested by the new media. Fortunately in this example, the recent multimedia guidelines[39] accepted by a broad range of publishers and users are more realistic. It is increasingly clear that there are going to be continuing battles between publishers and users until the copyright and Fair Use guidelines in this electronic age are finally settled. Unfortunately, it appears that Fair Use will end up being more restricted than in the past, at least when materials are placed on a network.

Cost of Books and Journals

The library budgets on most campuses are not growing as fast as the cost of books and journals. One approach has been to use document delivery, and it has been reasonably successful.[40] In most cases Fair Use is waived and copyright fees are paid. Even with that, the economics have been favorable but, obviously, access has been restricted. Furthermore, libraries soon will own little except older journals. [41] On her web site (http://www.library.yale.edu/~okerson), Ann Okerson has many examples of alternative collective agreements. It has even been suggested that some form of collective agreement might be adopted for textbooks or other educational materials, namely an agreement with some publisher for a reduced rate if all textbooks in, for example, biology are purchased from the same publisher. That seems to run counter to faculty independence but is one of the issues faced by "software" developers in trying to get their products accepted. The issue has been discussed at length in the National Learning Infrastructure Initiative paper on "Academic Productivity: The Case for Instructional Software" [42] by Carol Twigg.

As universities find their access to the literature more and more restricted by the normal channels, the more attractive it is that we return again to ownership retained by the producer of the scholarly works to allow freer access and, hopefully, lower costs.

Universities of the Future

While there have been dire predictions of the death of all universities, that scenario is not likely. However, all universities will change and some new types will appear. We already can see some of them in the for-profit group. The larger, traditional universities will become more electronic with more outreach programs using electronic communications. There will be lots of competition for educational and training dollars. Very likely many of the for-profit schools will offer joint programs with the traditional schools, if only because that will guarantee accreditation for their courses. Accreditation is one of the real stumbling blocks limiting expansion of non-traditional groups today. Even if accreditation becomes less important, that will likely be less important only for many business/industry courses. It seems highly unlikely that states or government agencies will retreat on this issue for hard core courses and major degree programs; they will support accrediting agencies until employers declare them irrelevant. This is already occurring in many programs where the issue is more training than hard core educational courses.

It is likely that this new climate will lead to new organizations which will offer educational programs; just imagine a group of Nobel prize winners in physics offering a complete set of physics courses via the internet. Such courses could be sold to universities in packages which might include personal guest lectures. The new climate also will put increased emphasis on costs. Already, some schools (Colorado Community Colleges) offer distance learning courses at twice the cost of on-campus courses because the market will support the surcharge, while other schools offer courses under $100. Right now not all of these are equivalent, but soon there will be enough evidence to decide which is really the best, based on the experience of the graduates. Likewise, the traditional educational organizations will have to defend their "pricing structure."

All of this means that electronic communications will make it possible to attain necessary training, or even degrees, without having to spend four to six years at a remote location. It also means that the learner will be in the driver's seat and will be able to select his school, her prefened method of instruction and utilize multimedia materials at the pace and location of their choosing. There will be increased competition with whoever provides the best course, the best interactions, the most help winning employment. Traditional universities will have to do the same if they are not to wither.

The future of many research universities is hard to predict. The larger schools with the most grant and other external support will clearly thrive, but many marginal research operations, with minimal numbers of graduate students, are going to face difficult times as grant funding decreases. They will have to justify their research programs to their supporters, be they alumni, government, or industry. Productivity will be a major concern; but it first will have to be defined.

We are living in an interesting period when electronic communications have the potential to greatly alter the nature of the university and the way its members function. Students are going to view a university very differently when their major contact with it is through various web pages and multimedia modules delivered to their home, never having seen the university's buildings except on a brochure, which might be delivered over the Internet as well!

References

6. The Chronicle of Higher Education, 97-98 Almanac.

16. Frank Jewett, "Evaluating the Benefits and Costs of Mediated Instruction and Distributed Learning"; also http://www.educause.edu/nlii/meetings/orleans97/case.html

17. Florida Gulf Coast University, "New University Tries to be a Model of Use of Technology," Chronicle of Higher Education, Electronic Edition, Dec 12, 1997.

18. Courtney Leatherman, "Leaders of Scholarly Groups Outline Response to Growth in Use of Part-Time Faculty," Chronicle of Higher Education, December 5, 1997.

21. 'For-Profit Higher Education Sees Booming Enrollments and Revenues," Chronicle of Higher Education, January 23, 1998; "University of Phoenix's Faculty Members Insist They Offer High-Quality Education," Chronicle of Higher Education, October 16, 1998.

26. Chronicle of Higher Education, September 12, 1997, death of monograph.

27. Chronicle January 9,1998 article on increased importance of teaching

28. IMS (Instructional Management Project)

32. A general problem based discussion of the role of electronic publications and technology (including software) and tenure is also found at http://socserv2.mcmaster.ca/srnet/t_tissues.htm

33. E. Green, Annual Campus Computing Surveys; see also "Attracted to the Light; Burned by the Flame: Money, Technology, and Distance Education." ED, Education at a Distance, May, 1997, p. J-l.

34. "America's 100 Most Wired Colleges", Wired, May 1997, p. 50.

36. Weisser, Christian, John Baker, and Janice R. Walker, "Problems and Possibilities of Electronic Theses and Dissertations"