2021 Projects, Publications & Meetings of the Academy

Global Security and International Affairs

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Global Security

The Global Security and International Affairs program area draws on the expertise of policy-makers, practitioners, and scholars to foster knowledge and inform innovative and more substantial policies to address crucial issues affecting the global community. Projects underway in this area engage with pressing strategic development and moral questions that underpin relations among people, communities, and states worldwide. Each initiative embraces a broad conception of security as the interaction among human, national, and global security imperatives. Project recommendations move beyond the idea of security as the absence of war toward higher aspirations of collective peace, development, and justice.
 

Committee on International Security Studies
 

CHAIR

Scott D. Sagan

Stanford University


MEMBERS

R. Nicholas Burns

Harvard Kennedy School

Antonia Chayes
Tufts University

Christopher F. Chyba
Princeton University

Neta C. Crawford
Boston University

Karl W. Eikenberry
Schwarzman College

Tanisha M. Fazal
University of Minnesota

Martha Finnemore
George Washington University

Lawrence D. Freedman
King’s College London

Nicholas D. Kristof
The New York Times

Susan Landau
Tufts University

Robert Legvold
Columbia University

Rose M. McDermott
Brown University

Steven E. Miller
Harvard Kennedy School

Barry Posen
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Adam Roberts
The British Academy

Jennifer M. Welsh
McGill University

Paul H. Wise
Stanford University

 


 

Project

Meeting the Challenges of the New Nuclear Age, Phase I

Nuclear Age

The world has entered a new nuclear era. No longer dominated by two nuclear superpowers, the evolving multipolar nuclear order presents fundamental challenges to the conceptual and practical means of avoiding nuclear war. Moreover, the new era has slowly dismantled the bilateral arms control framework, with no clear prospect that it will be revived and extended. The possibility that a framework or frameworks encompassing other, let alone all, nuclear powers can be achieved seems even more remote. In addition, advances in weapons technology and the opening of new frontiers, such as cyber capabilities and artificial intelligence, make a shifting environment still more complex. The pathways to inadvertent nuclear war have multiplied across more regions and relationships.

Since 2017, the Meeting the Challenges of the New Nuclear Age project has worked to identify the major dangers generated by the dynamics of a multipolar nuclear world that pose the greatest threat of inadvertent nuclear war; offer alternative approaches to addressing each of these dangers; facilitate discussions with relevant communities in the United States and abroad; and encourage and assist policy-makers, Congress, the analytical community, and the media to think systematically about our increasingly multipolar world. The publications produced by the project have been shared widely with domestic and international policy-makers, scholars and students of nuclear affairs, and leaders of international organizations.

Meeting the Challenges of the New Nuclear Age is rooted in the critically important work on arms control that the Academy conducted from 1958 to 1960 to prevent a nuclear confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union. During that time, Academy Fellows gathered monthly to build a cooperative framework between the United States and the Soviet Union based on the limitations of the nuclear stockpile and the establishment of mutual vulnerability between the two rivals. The group included Donald Brennan, Edward Teller, Henry Kissinger, and Thomas Schelling, among others. Today, more than ever, an effort that brings together scholars and policy-makers to examine the wide range of challenges posed by the changing nuclear order is urgently needed. More information about the Academy’s past and present nuclear-related projects is online at https://www.amacad.org/nuclear.

 


 

Project

Meeting the Challenges of the New Nuclear Age, Phase II: Deterrence & New Nuclear States

New Nuclear Age Phase II

With the emergence of three new nuclear powers (India, Pakistan, and North Korea) and several more potentially becoming nuclear states (including Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey), the world is on the verge of a new nuclear age. This will demand new thinking about the security implications of nuclear powers that may be in highly hostile environments, suffer from domestic instability, have fewer resources, or be led by personalist dictators. Phase II of Meeting the Challenges of the New Nuclear Age investigates the deterrence and defense implications facing small nuclear force countries and potential proliferators.

The project is producing an edited volume of innovative, policy-relevant essays that will be published by a university press. Outreach activities will be aimed at nuclear policy-makers (primarily in the United States) and academic centers and think tank institutes with a specific focus on nuclear studies.
 

Project Chairs, Phase I
 

Robert Legvold
Columbia University

Christopher Chyba
Princeton University

 

Project Chairs, Phase II
 

Scott D. Sagan
Stanford University

Vipin Narang
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

 

Steering Committee Members, Phase I
 

Thomas J. Christensen
Princeton University

Lynn Eden
Stanford University

Steven E. Miller
Harvard Kennedy School

Scott D. Sagan
Stanford University

Jon Wolfsthal
Global Zero

 

Working Group, Phase I
 

James M. Acton
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Mark S. Bell
University of Minnesota

Linton Brooks
Center for Strategic and International Studies

M. Taylor Fravel
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Sumit Ganguly
Indiana University

Francis J. Gavin
John Hopkins School of Advanced and International Studies

Michael Krepon
Stimson Center

Hans Kristensen
Federation of American Scientists

Jessica Tuchman Mathews
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Nicholas L. Miller
Dartmouth University

Steven E. Miller
Harvard Kennedy School

Vipin Narang
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Olga Oliker
International Crisis Group

George Perkovich
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Steven Pifer
Brookings Institution

William Potter
Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey

Mira Rapp-Hooper
Yale University

Scott D. Sagan
Stanford University

Michael Swaine
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

Nina Tannenwald
Brown University

Jane Vaynman
Temple University

Keren Yarhi-Milo
Princeton University

 

Advisory Committee, Phase II
 

Victor Cha
Georgetown University

Lawrence D. Freedman
King’s College London

Robert Jervis
Columbia University

Jeffrey Lewis
Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey

Rose McDermott
Brown University

Barry Posen
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Gary Samore
Brandeis University

Caitlin Talmadge
Georgetown University

 

Project Staff
 

Poul Erik Christiansen
Raymond Frankel Nuclear Security Policy Fellow

Kathryn Moffat
Program Officer

Tania Munz
Chief Program Officer

Islam Qasem
Program Director

Jen Smith
Program Coordinator

Kathleen Torgesen
Program Coordinator

 

Funders
 

Louise Henry Bryson and John E. Bryson

John F. Cogan, Jr.

Lester Crown

Alan M. Dachs

Bob and Kristine Higgins

Richard Rosenberg

Kenneth L. and Susan S. Wallach
 

Deceased
 

Project Publications
 

New Nuclear Age

Meeting the Challenges of the New Nuclear Age: U.S. and Russian Nuclear Concepts, Past and Present, Linton Brooks, Alexei Arbatov, and Francis J. Gavin (American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2018)




 

New Nuclear Age Emerging Risks

Meeting the Challenges of the New Nuclear Age: Emerging Risks and Declining Norms in the Age of Technological Innovation and Changing Nuclear Doctrines, Nina Tannenwald and James M. Acton, with an Introduction by Jane Vaynman (American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2018)



 

New Nuclear Age Changing Global Order

Meeting the Challenges of the New Nuclear Age: Nuclear Weapons in a Changing Global Order, Steven E. Miller, Robert Legvold, and Lawrence Freedman (American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2019)




 

Contemplating Strategic Stability in a New Multipolar Nuclear World, Robert Legvold (American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2019)
 

Daedalus Sp2020

“Meeting the Challenges of a New Nuclear Age,” Dædalus, edited by Robert Legvold & Christopher Chyba (2020)







 

Project Meetings
 

2020 Dædalus Virtual Series

July 9, July 22, August 6, and August 19, 2020
To stimulate discussion among policy-makers about the changing multipolar nuclear order, and to generate conversation about key findings of the Dædalus volume produced as part of the Meeting the Challenges of the New Nuclear Age project, the Academy convened a series of virtual discussions in collaboration with the Hoover Institution that featured selected Dædalus authors as well as experts and former officials from the United States, Russia, and China. The principal goal of the virtual discussion series was to identify and explore particular areas that could lead to greater international cooperation.

 

Deterrence and New Nuclear States Authors’ Virtual Workshop II

July 6, July 13, July 20, and July 27, 2020
This second workshop brought together the authors of the forthcoming edited volume on The Fragile Balance of Terror: Deterrence in the New Nuclear Age to review and discuss the draft essays and the cross-cutting conclusions in the volume.

 

2021 Dædalus Virtual Series

March 12, March 19, April 9, and April 3, 2021
Building on the work of the virtual series in 2020, the Academy and the Hoover Institution hosted a second virtual series with scholars and policy-makers from the United States, Russia, and China to explore issues such as What Next for Arms Control, Missile Defense and Strategic Stability, Cross-Domain Entanglement and Nuclear Risk, and The North Korean Nuclear Challenge.

 


 

Project

Rethinking the Humanitarian Health Response to Violent Conflict

Humanitarian Health

Rethinking the Humanitarian Health Response to Violent Conflict seeks to understand and address current trends in humanitarian contexts that pose new or evolving challenges for humanitarian health responders. Among the most pressing challenges are the increasingly protracted nature of civil and non-international armed conflict; the fact that many of the world’s most violent places are facing criminal or political violence rather than conflict as conventionally understood; shortfalls in funding; and changing geopolitical relations. This project brings together political scientists, legal and security experts, health professionals, and humanitarians to examine current challenges to effective humanitarian action and to develop, where necessary, new strategies for preventing civilian harm and delivering critical health services in areas plagued by violent conflict.

The project’s initial work includes a focus on responding to some of the urgent challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on humanitarian health needs in conflict areas and other violent settings. Building on its efforts to address the political and security dimensions of pandemic response in areas of weak governance and violent conflict, the initiative is convening a series of rapid-cycle workshops on global cooperation and pandemic control. Drawing upon the Academy’s strengths in political science, diplomacy, global health, and the arts, the project will explore how political legitimacy, trust in expert authority and information, divisive political environments, and cultural mechanisms of community protection and social cohesion shape the ability of states and international institutions to respond to infectious outbreaks.

Future work across the project’s major components will include substantive engagement with a range of audiences through convenings, publications, and multimedia products. A cross-cutting Dædalus issue, to be published in 2023, will synthesize these findings from across all components of the project, and tailored resources will be produced for selected audiences, particularly relevant stakeholders and policy-makers.
 

Project Chairs
 

Jaime Sepulveda
University of California, San Francisco

Jennifer M. Welsh
McGill University

Paul H. Wise
Stanford University

 

Advisory Group
 

Sergio Aguayo
El Colegio de México

Donald M. Berwick
Institute of Healthcare Improvement

Louise Henry Bryson
The J. Paul Getty Trust

Rita Dayoub
Chatham House

Elisabeth Decrey Warner
Geneva Call

David P. Fidler
Indiana University Bloomington

Fouad Fouad
American University of Beirut

Marion Jacobs
University of Cape Town

Arthur Kleinman
Harvard University

Joanne Liu
McGill University

Deborah F. Rutter
John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts

Tamara Taraciuk Broner
Human Rights Watch

 

Project Staff
                 

Kathryn Moffat
Program Officer

Tania Munz
Chief Program Officer

Islam Qasem
Program Director

Jen Smith
Program Coordinator

Rebecca Tiernan
Program Associate

Kathleen Torgesen
Program Coordinator

 

Funders
 

Louise Henry Bryson and John E. Bryson

Malcolm Hewitt Wiener Foundation
 

Project Meetings
 

Cooperative Responses to Common Threats

February 8 and February 22, 2021
This meeting brought together a select group of experts, who work on a range of shared threats that require international and cooperative responses, to consider ways to strengthen international cooperation in response to pandemics. Building on the Academy’s extensive network across a variety of fields, the participants discussed what can be learned from other efforts–such as those that involve nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons and climate change, among others–to generate international cooperation to respond to shared threats. Particular attention was given to the design of institutions and other arrangements to foster cooperation and encourage information sharing among states, even in situations of geopolitical rivalry.

 


 

Project

Promoting Dialogue on Arms Control and Disarmament

dialogue arms control disarmament

Unlike the Cold War, the current nuclear age is characterized by a simultaneous collapse of arms control agreements and the absence of any strategic dialogue among the three main nuclear players.

One strand of the project’s work consists of a series of Track-2 dialogues between experts and former policy-makers from the United States, Russia, and China, which is designed to identify critical short-term goals in arms control that would serve to minimize and reduce the potential risks of nuclear arms-racing and escalation. The meetings identify areas for cooperation and promote conceptual thinking about measures that might strengthen strategic stability and help to reduce the significant dangers of nuclear weapons being used in the future.

A second strand of work builds on the Academy’s prior experience organizing educational sessions for the United States Congress on a range of topics. Through a series of engagements with members of Congress and their staffs, the project will help to foster and strengthen knowledge on key issues and challenges facing the United States in arms control and international security, with particular attention to careful management of the strategic competition posed by China and Russia.

A third strand of work weaves the project’s expert discussions and policy recommendations together to produce high-impact publications on critical debates within nuclear arms control. With authorship shared between U.S., Russian, and Chinese experts, the publication series will be used to disseminate research findings to the executive and legislative branches and the policy community at large in the United States. These publications will also be translated into Russian and Chinese for reciprocal dissemination to policy-makers and the arms control communities in Moscow and Beijing.
 

Project Chair
 

Steven E. Miller
Harvard University

 

Project Staff
 

Poul Erik Christiansen
Raymond Frankel Nuclear Security Policy Fellow

Kathryn Moffat
Program Officer

Tania Munz
Chief Program Officer

Islam Qasem
Program Director

Jen Smith
Program Coordinator

Kathleen Torgesen
Program Coordinator

 

Funder
 

The Raymond Frankel Foundation
 

Project Publication
 

Nuclear-Perils-in-a-New-Era.jpg

Nuclear Perils in a New Era: Bringing Perspective to the Nuclear Choices Facing Russia and the United States, Steven E. Miller and Alexey Arbatov (American Academy of Arts and Sciences and Russian Academy of Sciences, 2021)





 

Project Meeting
 

China’s Foreign Policy: Sovereignty, Confrontation, and Prospects for Arms Control

July 23, 2020
This briefing for staffers from both sides of the aisle in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate featured expert speakers who highlighted a range of issues in Chinese policy that have significant implications for the United States, including the ways in which China’s recent actions in various disputed border territories bring into focus how it views sovereignty issues in its neighborhood, and how China’s refusal to engage in trilateral nuclear arms control with the United States and Russia relates to issues of Chinese nuclear attitudes and their military strategy.

 


 

Project

Civil Wars, Violence, and International Responses

Civil Wars

The Civil Wars, Violence, and International Responses project stems from the observation that current multilateral approaches for preventing, mitigating, and resolving civil wars and intrastate violence are often far too ambitious. They frequently overpromise stability, security, peace, democracy, and development to countries experiencing high levels of violence and instability. The project identified six threats that emerge from civil wars and intrastate violence: pandemic diseases, transnational terrorism, migration, regional instability, great power conflict, and criminality. The project has engaged in extensive domestic and international outreach to share findings and recommendations that deliver a more comprehensive, effective, and integrated approach to conflict prevention and crisis management, which encompasses security, diplomacy, and development strategies in countries such as Colombia, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Syria, Lebanon, and Sri Lanka, among others. Building on these policy discussions, in January 2021 the project published a research paper that focuses on the policy implications of the project’s findings, which is being distributed to relevant policy-makers in the United States and internationally. Outreach activities for the paper will focus on connecting with members and staff of the U.S. Congress, with policy-makers in Europe, and with other relevant audiences.
 

Project Chairs
 

Karl Eikenberry
Schwarzman College

Stephen Krasner
Stanford University

 

Project Members
 

Michele Barry
Stanford University

Abdeta Dribssa Beyene
The Centre for Dialogue, Research and Cooperation, Ethiopia

Stephen D. Biddle
Council on Foreign Relations

Tanja M. Börzel
Freie Universität Berlin

Charles Call
American University

Susana Campbell
American University

Martha Crenshaw
Stanford University

Lyse Doucet
BBC News

Tanisha M. Fazal
University of Minnesota

James D. Fearon
Stanford University

Vanda Felbab-Brown
Brookings Institution

Francis Fukuyama
Stanford University

Sumit Ganguly
Indiana University

Miguel García-Sánchez
Universidad de los Andes, Colombia

Richard Gowan
New York University

Sonja Grimm
University of Konstanz, Germany

Jean-Marie Guéhenno
Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue, Switzerland

Joseph Hewitt
United States Institute of Peace

Steven Heydemann
Smith College

Bruce Jones
Brookings Institution

Stathis N. Kalyvas
Yale University

Nancy E. Lindborg
The David and Lucile Packard Foundation

Sarah Kenyon Lischer
Wake Forest University

Clare Lockhart
Institute for State Effectiveness

Aila M. Matanock
University of California, Berkeley

Seyoum Mesfin
Institute of Advanced Research, Ethiopia

Stewart Patrick
Council on Foreign Relations

Barry R. Posen
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

William Reno
Northwestern University

Thomas Risse
Freie Universität Berlin

Hendrik Spruyt
Northwestern University

Stephen Stedman
Stanford University

Eric Stollenwerk
Freie Universität Berlin

Paul H. Wise
Stanford University

 

Project Staff
 

Kathryn Moffat
Program Officer

Tania Munz
Chief Program Officer

Islam Qasem
Program Director

Jen Smith
Program Coordinator

Kathleen Torgesen
Program Coordinator

 

Funders
 

Humanity United

Smith Richardson Foundation

Oak Foundation
 

Project Publications
 

Daedalus-Fall-2017.jpg

“Civil Wars & Global Disorder: Threats & Opportunities,” Dædalus, edited by Karl Eikenberry & Stephen D. Krasner (2017)





 

Daedalus-Winter-2018.jpg

“Ending Civil Wars: Constraints & Possibilities,” Dædalus, edited by Karl Eikenberry & Stephen D.
Krasner (2018)






 

Good-Enough-Governance.jpg

“Good Enough” Governance: Humility and the Limits of Foreign Intervention in Response to Civil Wars and Intrastate Violence, Karl Eikenberry and Stephen D. Krasner (American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2021)





 

Project Meetings
 

Briefing with the Hoover National Security Affairs Fellows

March 12, 2021
During this virtual briefing, Karl Eikenberry and Stephen Krasner shared the key findings and policy implications of the project with representatives from the U.S. military and U.S. Department of State who are currently participating in the Robert and Marion Oster National Security Affairs Fellows program. The briefing also included a wider discussion of the implications of changing conflict for U.S. military policy.

 

Small Group Discussion with the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue

April 21, 2021
The discussion focused on under what conditions and with what tools can intervention in civil wars succeed. Karl Eikenberry and Stephen Krasner briefly presented their paper, “Good Enough” Governance: Humility and the Limits of Foreign Intervention in Response to Civil Wars and Intrastate Violence, and then engaged in a wider group discussion on what donor countries can realistically achieve.