RG XXI: Commission on the Year 2000
Historical Note
Interest in the millennium developed not only from the significance of the event, but from the anticipation of the world to come, full of new technologies, shifting policies, and a changing role for the U. S. in the global arena. The Academy established the Commission on the Year 2000 in 1964 to consider the consequences of private and public decisions, anticipate future problems, and suggest alternative solutions before those problems descended unnoticed and demanded an immediate--and not always effective--response. Chaired by Harvard University’s Daniel Bell (elected 1964), the Commission’s task was to imagine the future and identify the problem areas and social and intellectual questions likely to be central by the year 2000. Among the issues discussed were: biomedical sciences and technology; economic institutions; the individual; intellectual institutions; the international system; the life-cycle of the individual; science and society; the social impact of the computer; the U.S. government; and values and rights.
First published in Dædalus in 1967, the Commission report’s chapter titles reveal topics that have been and continue to be at the center of scholarly research and contemporary politics. In addition to the Dædalus issue, the Commission produced the following publications: Toward the Year 2000: Work in Progress, ed. Daniel Bell and Stephen R. Graubard. Cambridge and London: The MIT Press, 1967, 1968, 1997; and The Future of the U.S. Government: Toward the Year 2000, ed. Harvey S. Perloff. New York: George Braziller, Inc., 1971. In March 1972, Bell and the Academy received a grant from the National Science Foundation to fund a twenty-month research project entitled “Futurism and Forecasting: An Assessment of the Field.”
Scope and Content
The series is contained within the Academy Archives’ Record Group XXI: Academy Projects and Programs. Processing for the series utilized MPLP principles, thus minimum preservation steps were taken, and folder titles listed in the finding aid are as they appear on the actual folders. As materials from varying series were incorporated, an intellectual arrangement was placed on the series with original order being maintained in certain places.
This series contains records of the work done by both the administrative support and the working groups of the Commission. Included materials consist of correspondence and memoranda, grant materials, invitations to join the Commission, newspaper clippings and journal articles on the Commission and futurology, notes, official publications of the findings and reports generated by the Commission, requests from varying institutions and entities for copies of official reports, and transcripts of the meetings in each area of the study.
Subjects
Bell, Daniel, 1919-2011
American Academy of Arts and Sciences
Economic forecasting
Education, Higher—Forecasting
Forecasting—21st century
International relations–Forecasting
Learned institutions and societies—America
Life cycle, Human—Social aspects
Natural resources--United States—Forecasting
Population forecasting—United States
Privacy—Moral and ethical aspects
Privacy, Right of—21st century
Science—Social aspects—Forecasting
Social change—Forecasting
Social prediction
Technological forecasting
Technology—Sociological aspects
United States—Politics and government—Forecasting
Universities and colleges—Forecasting
Urbanization—Forecasting
Subseries 1: Project Administration, 1964-1980
Description: This subseries documents the basic functions of the Commission.
Arrangement: This subseries contains three sub-subseries organized by function: Sub-subseries 1.1: Grant Management; Sub-subseries 1.2: Correspondence (1966-1972); and Sub-subseries 1.3: Publicity Papers (1966-1980). Material related to the funding and support for the Commission, included in Sub-subseries 1, is restricted. Each sub-subseries is organized chronologically.
Sub-subseries 1.1: Grant Management [RESTRICTED]
Box 1
Folder 1 | [Academy Proposal for Support for Completion of Commission] |
Folder 2 | Year 2000 -- FUNDING -- Carnegie Corp. Grant |
Folder 3 | Year 2000 -- FUNDING -- IBM Contribution |
Folder 4 | Year 2000 -- FUNDING -- Luce Foundation |
Folder 5 | Year 2000 -- FUNDING -- Proposals - Unsuccessful |
Folder 6 | Year 2000 -- Sloan |
Sub-subseries 1.2: Correspondence, 1964-1972
Box 1 (cont.)
Folder 7 | Year 2000 - Establishment of. |
Folder 8 | Year 2000 -------- Correspondence with Daniel Bell 1964-66 |
Folder 9 | Correspondence 1966-67 |
Folder 10 | 2000: Correspondence Bell (second phase) 1967- |
Folder 11 | Year 2000 -- 1971-72 Correspondence |
Folder 12 | Year 2000 -- SUMMARY VOLUME -- Correspondence regarding - 1972 |
Folder 13 | OFFICIAL FILE COPIES - Commission on the Year 2000 - Working Memoranda |
Folder 14 | Year 2000 -- GENERAL -- General Correspondence |
Sub-subseries 1.3: Publicity Papers, 1966-1980
Box 1 (cont.)
Folder 15 | Background and Information Publicity |
Folder 16 | Publicity and Articles from our Commission on the Year 2000 |
Box 2
Folder 1 | [Burrelle’s Correspondence & Press Clippings 1966-68] |
Folder 2 | [J.E. Slater Correspondence and Articles 1967 & 1976] |
Folder 3 | 2000: Background & Information Publicity -- February, 1968- |
Folder 4 | [Science: American Association for the Advancement of Science; Centennial Issue 4 July 1980] |
Subseries 2: Project Work, 1965-1972
Description: This subseries documents the works pursued and completed by the various working parties. It contains transcripts from party meetings, memoranda, correspondence, and other ephemera.
Arrangement: The subseries consists of two sub-subseries, organized by function: Sub-subseries 2.1: Administrative Planning (1965-1971); and Sub-subseries 2.2:Working Groups (1966-1972). Each sub-subseries is organized chronologically with Sub-subseries 2 further organized by working group.
Sub-subseries 2.1: Administrative Planning, 1965-1971
Box 2(cont.)
Folder 5 | [Commission Members Index] |
Folder 6 | Year 2000 --- Invitations Accepted |
Folder 7 | Commission meeting - October 1965 |
Folder 8 | Commission Meeting - February 1966 |
Folder 9 | Commission Meeting - June 1967 |
Folder 10 | Year 2000 -- GENERAL -- Background Material sent to Commission Members |
Folder 11 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- General Invitations for 2nd phase, Feb. 1967 |
Folder 12 | Year 2000 -- GENERAL -- Meeting - Mar. 5-6, 1971 -- Transcript of three sessions |
Folder 13 | Year 2000 -- GENERAL-- Mtgs. - Arrangements for Meeting -March 5-6, 1971 |
Folder 14 | Year 2000 -- GENERAL -- Soviet-American Cooperation re Social Forecasting |
Folder 15 | Frank Correspondence |
Folder 16 | Technology / John McHale World Resources |
Sub-subseries 2.2: Working Groups, 1966-1972
Box 2 (cont.)
Folder 17 | Year 2000 -- GENERAL -- Mtgs. Of Comm. - Dec. 1, 1966 transcript on the future of Technology |
Folder 18 | Year 2000 -- GENERAL -- Memorandum on Structural changes in the U.S. -D. Bell |
Folder 19 | Year 2000 -- GENERAL -- Foreign Inquiries - Japan Techno-Economic Society |
Folder 20 | Year 2000 -- GENERAL -- Proposal for International Ctr. For Future Studies - 1967-68 |
Folder 21 | Year 2000 -- GENERAL -- Proposed Clinic on change as Followup to Commission |
Folder 22 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- General - Mtg. of Chairmen, June 9, 1967 |
Folder 23 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- General Planning |
Folder 24 | 2000 Commission, June 1967 Transcript |
Folder 25 | Inventing the Future Environment -- S. Anderson Conference (10/13-16/66 |
Folder 26 | Year 2000 -- FOLLOWUP -- Proposal on Futurism & Forecasting Project to NSF - 1972 |
Folder 27 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Biomedical Sciences & Technology-Mendelson |
Folder 28 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Individual & Economic Inst. - Transcripts unedited of Sess. I-IV, March 1, 1968 |
Folder 29 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Future of Intellectual Institutions-Graubard-Transcript of Sess. Nov. 1-2, 1968 |
Box 3
Folder 1 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Individual & Economic Insts--unedited transcripts of Sessions I-III Dec. 13/68 |
Folder 2 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Economic Institutions - Shubik |
Folder 3 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Intellectual Institutions -Graubard-General Correspondence |
Folder 4 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- International System-Hoffmann-Mtg. of 5/18/1967 |
Folder 5 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Life Cycle Reorganization of group - K. Erikson |
Folder 6 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Life Cycle of the Individual - Transcript of Meeting Oct. 24-25, 1967 |
Folder 7 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Life Cycle (Duhl) Organization of Session, Oct. 24-25, 1967 |
Folder 8 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Life Cycle (Duhl) edited transcript of sess. I-III, Oct. 24-25, 1967 |
Folder 9 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES --- Life Cycle -- Membership List |
Folder 10 | Year 2000 - Working Party Life Cycle - Duhl, Chairman |
Folder 11 | Year 2000 -- Working Groups -- Study of the Life Cycle - Transcript of Mtg. August 3-7, 1970 |
Folder 12 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Science & Society -- General Correspondence |
Folder 13 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Social Implications of the Computer (Fano) Membership Lists |
Folder 14 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Social Implications of the Computer-Fano - General Correspondence 1967-1971 |
Folder 15 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Social Implications of the Computer-Fano - Invitations -- Nov., 1967 |
Folder 16 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Social Impact of the Computer (Fano) - edited transcripts of Sessions I-IV, 1/5-6/68 |
Folder 17 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Social Implications of the Computer -- transcripts of Session I-IV, 2/16-17/68 |
Folder 18 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Social Implications of the Computer -- edited transcripts of sessions III-IV, 3/11/68 |
Folder 19 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Social Implications of the Computer -- edited transcripts Session I-III, 3/11-12/68 |
Folder 20 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Social Implications of the Computer (Fano) Transcripts - Session II-IV, 11/22/68 |
Folder 21 | Year 2000 - Social Implications of the Computer - Papers Prepared |
Folder 22 | Year 2000 - Social Implications of the Computer - Transcripts |
Box 4
Folder 1 | [Year 2000 - Memos & Transcripts for Social Implications for Computer/Individual & Economic Institutions] |
Folder 2 | [Year 2000 - Articles/Chapters/Papers for Working Group on Social Implications of the Computer] |
Folder 3 | [Year 2000 - Correspondence/Reports/Papers/Articles on Social Implications of the Computer] |
Folder 4 | Year 2000 -- Looking Back on the Future of the U.S. Govt. - Perloff |
Folder 5 | [Binder] Year 2000 - Perloff - April 25-26 Sessions III, IV, V |
Folder 6 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Future of the U.S. Government (Perloff - General Correspondence |
Folder 7 | Year 2000 - U.S. Government - May 25-27, 1967 |
Folder 8 | Year 2000 - U.S. Government - November, 1967 |
Folder 9 | [Binder] Year 2000 - U.S. Government - Papers - April-May '68 |
Folder 10 | Year 2000 - U.S. Government - April 26-27, 1968 |
Folder 11 | Year 2000 - U.S. Government - May 17, 1968 |
Folder 12 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Values & Rights - Membership List |
Folder 13 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Values & Rights -- General Correspondence 1967-1973 |
Folder 14 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Values & Rights (Ikle) Invitations - July, 1967 |
Box 5
Folder 1 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Values & Rights (Ikle) - Precis of Sess. 11/10/67 |
Folder 2 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Values & Rights (Ikle) - Transcripts - unedited) Sessions I & II 0 Nov. 10-11, 1967 |
Folder 3 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Values & Rights - Transcripts unedited - Sessions III & IV - Nov., 10-11, 1967 |
Folder 4 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Values & Rights (Ikle) - Mtg., Nov. 10-11, 1967 |
Folder 5 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Values & Rights (Ikle) - Memo by D. Bell - Nov., 1969 |
Folder 6 | Year 2000 - Working Party Values & Rights - Ikle, Chairman |
Folder 7 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Values & Rights - Paper by D. MacRae |
Folder 8 | Year 2000 -- WORKING PARTIES -- Values & Rights (Ikle) - Papers & Memos by L. Frank |
Subseries 3: Project Publications, 1965-1971
Description: This subseries contains the drafts and final publications of the groups in the Commission, and requests from varying institutions for copies of certain said publications.
Arrangement: The subseries is made up of three sub-subseries, organized by function: Sub-subseries 3.1: Drafts; Sub-subseries 3.2: Final Products; and Sub-subseries 3.3: Publication Requests. Each sub-subseries is organized alphabetically.
Sub-subseries 3.1: Drafts and Final Products, 1965-1967
Box 5 (cont.)
Folder 9 | BECKER, HOWARD -- Year 2000 - Some Notes on Hip and Square in the Year 2000 |
Folder 10 | Year 2000 -- GENERAL -- Manuscript by D. Bell on Forecasting, 1967 |
Folder 11 | BENNIS, WARREN G. -- Year 2000 - The Future of Bureaucracy |
Folder 12 | BERRY, PAUL C. - - Origins of "Positive Population Control" 1970=2000 |
Folder 13 | CARTER, ALLAN -- Higher Education in the Last Third of the Century |
Folder 14 | DeCARLO, CHARLES -- Learning and Childhood |
Folder 15 | DOBZHANSKY, THODOSIUS - Year 2000 - Genetics and Equality |
Folder 16 | DUHL, LEONARD -- Year 2000 - Creation of Forecasting and Planning Mechanisms |
Folder 17 | ERKISON, ERIK -- Memorandum |
Folder 18 | FRANK, LAWRENCE K. -- Year 2000 - Life-Cycle: Future of Women |
Folder 19 | FRANK, LAWRENCE K. -- Year 2000 - Life-Cycle: Personality Change |
Folder 20 | FRANK, LAWRENCE K. -- Year 2000 - Planning |
Folder 21 | FRANK, LAWRENCE K. -- Year 2000 - Privacy |
Folder 22 | FRANK, LAWRENCE K. -- Year 2000 - The Role of Values |
Folder 23 | GASTIL, RAYMOND D. -- Two Pessimistic Future Histories |
Folder 24 | GORHAM, WILLIAM - Gov't Planning for the Year 2000 |
Folder 25 | HIRSCHMAN, ALBERT O. - Year 2000 - Outline on Frictions and Conflicts Developed & Underdeveloped Cnts. |
Folder 26 | HUNTINGTON, S.P. - Year 2000 - Mobilization vs. Institutionalization: |
Folder 27 | IKLE, CHARLES -- Year 2000 - On the Epistemology of Predicting For Our Society |
Folder 28 | de JOUVENEL, BERTRAND; MASSENET, MICHEL; MOLES, ABRAHAM - Original, Translated, and Condensed Articles |
Folder 29 | KAHN, HERMAN - Year 2000 - Alternative World Futures |
Folder 30 | On Alternative World Futures: Contexts and Themes by H. Kahn, W. Pfaff, and E. Stillman - Interim Draft |
Folder 31 | KAHN, HERMAN -- Memorandum |
Folder 32 | KALVEN, HARRY -- Year 2000 - The Problems of Privacy in the Year 2000 |
Folder 33 | LEONTIEF, WASSILY -- Predicting the State of the Economy Forty Years Ahead |
Folder 34 | MAYR, ERNST-- Year 2000 - Biological Man and the Year 2000 |
Folder 35 | MEAD, MARGARET -- Year 2000 - The Life-Cycle and its Variations: Division of labor/sexes |
Folder 36 | MEIER, RICHARD -- Year 2000 - Communications overload |
Folder 37 | MILLER, GEORGE A. -- Communications Theory and Learning |
Folder 38 | MOORE, WILBERT -- Year 2000 - Social Indicators Needed for Forecasting |
Box 6
Folder 1 | MOORE, WILBERT -- Year 2000 - Toward the Measurement of Social Change: Implications/Progress |
Folder 2 | MOYNIHAN, DANIEL P. -- Year 2000 - The Relationship of Federal to Local Authorities |
Folder 3 | ORLANS, HAROLD -- Year 2000 - Educational and Scientific Institutions |
Folder 4 | PERLOFF, HARVEY S. -- "New" Resources in an Urban Aye |
Folder 5 | PERLOFF, HARVEY S. -- Urban Development |
Folder 6 | PFAFF, WILLIAM -- Charts of Historical Change |
Folder 7 | PFAFF, WILLIAM -- Notes of 1966-2000 |
Folder 8 | PIFER, ALAN -- Year 2000 - The Future of the Foundations |
Folder 9 | POOL, ITHIEL -- Year 2000 - Trends in the International System |
Folder 10 | QUARTON, GARDNER C. -- Year 2000 - Deliberate Efforts to Change Personal-ity |
Folder 11 | REVELLE, ROGER -- Year 2000 - Science and Social Change |
Folder 12 | REVELLE, ROGER -- U.S. Natural Resources in the Year 2000 |
Folder 13 | RIESMAN, DAVID -- Year 2000 - Notes on Meritocracy |
Folder 14 | ROSTON, EUGENE -- Year 2000 - Thinking about the Future of International Society |
Folder 15 | SCHON, DONALD A. -- The Problem: Forecasting and Technological Forecasting |
Folder 16 | SHUBIK, MARTIN -- The Meaning of Rationality and Free Choice |
Folder 17 | STENDAHL, KRISTER -- Memorandum |
Folder 18 | STILLMAN, EDMUND -- Some International Consequences of Nuclear Weapons |
Folder 19 | WARREN, ROLAND L. -- Year 2000 - The Future of Human Service |
Folder 20 | WILSON, JAMES Q. -- Year 2000 - Violence |
Folder 21 | Working Papers of the Commission on the Year 2000, Volume I |
Folder 22 | Working Papers of the Commission on the Year 2000, Volume II - A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-three Years |
Folder 23 | Working Papers of the Commission on the Year 2000, Volume II-A |
Folder 24 | Working Papers of the Commission on the Year 2000, Volume III |
Box 7
Folder 1 | Working Papers of the Commission on the Year 2000, Volume IV |
Folder 2 | Working Papers of the Commission on the Year 2000, Volume V |
Folder 3 | Year 2000 -- PUBLICATIONS -- Future of the U.S. Government -- Book -- Author Biographies |
Folder 4 | Year 2000 -- PUBLICATIONS -- Future of the U.S. Government - Relations with Braziller (Publisher) |
Sub-subseries 3.2: Publication Requests, 1966-1971
Box 7 (cont.)
Folder 5 | Year 2000 -- PUBLICATIONS -- Requests |
Folder 6 | Inquiries - A |
Folder 7 | Inquiries - B |
Folder 8 | Inquiries - C |
Folder 9 | Inquiries - D |
Folder 10 | Inquiries - E |
Folder 11 | Inquiries - F |
Folder 12 | Inquiries - G |
Folder 13 | Inquiries - H |
Folder 14 | Inquiries - I |
Folder 15 | Inquiries - J |
Folder 16 | Inquiries - K |
Folder 17 | Inquiries - L |
Folder 18 | Inquiries - M |
Folder 19 | Inquiries - Mc |
Folder 20 | Inquiries - N |
Folder 21 | Inquiries - O |
Folder 22 | Inquiries - P |
Folder 23 | Inquiries - Q |
Folder 24 | Inquiries - R |
Folder 25 | Inquiries - S |
Folder 26 | Inquiries - T |
Folder 27 | Inquiries - U |
Folder 28 | Inquiries - V |
Folder 29 | Inquiries - W |
Folder 30 | Inquiries - XYZ |